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This article first appeared in Forum, The Edge Malaysia Weekly on July 24, 2023 – July 30, 2023
Asean has emerged as a key player in the complex geopolitical dynamics of Asia-Pacific. Amid the backdrop of competing territorial claims, US-China rivalry and the need for a stable security architecture, Asean finds itself navigating a delicate balance to avoid escalating tensions and prevent the region from becoming a new multipolar arena for great powers, akin to the Anglo-Russo “Great Game” of the 19th century.
Recent developments pose fundamental questions about Asean’s role amid the geopolitical dynamics of the South China Sea, US-China competition in Asia-Pacific and the bloc’s role in maintaining regional stability.
Asean cannot afford to remain a cautious bystander any longer and must pursue a more proactive role in the quest of maintaining regional stability.
The South China Sea remains a region of immense strategic importance because of its resources and trade routes, even as it faces challenges on account of the overlapping territorial claims involving Asean member states, China, Taiwan and other regional stakeholders.
Centrality constraints
Guided by Asean’s philosophy of centrality, its approach to these disputes has primarily been based on fostering dialogue and promoting peaceful resolution among all members. Yet, the very same notion of centrality constrains Asean’s role in concretising definitive and unified actions.
Further, the intensifying contention between the US and China has added dangerous dimensions to disputes in Asia-Pacific, where the US perceives China’s assertiveness in the region as a challenge to its interests and the freedom of navigation, leading to increased military presence and tit-for-tat naval exercises.
Asean, with various strategic interests at stake, would naturally want to avoid being caught in this great power tussle even as the consensus-based Asean aims to maintain constructive, pragmatic relations with both sides while emphasising the importance of dialogue and de-escalation.
Driven by its principle of non-interference, Asean has struggled to present a unified front because of the divergent interests among its member states. Nevertheless, any suggestion that it is quickly losing relevance is untenable, as it remains instrumental in creating platforms for dialogue and negotiations, acting as both mediator and facilitator.
Establishing a comprehensive and inclusive security architecture in the region, Asean and its dialogue partners have made progress promoting joint exercises and information sharing to enhance regional security.
The Asean Regional Forum (ARF), Asean Defence Ministers’ Meeting (ADMM) and East Asia Summit (EAS) serve as platforms for dialogue and cooperation on security issues between its member states. Nevertheless, these have been largely ineffective in living up to the challenges of reconciling its diverse security interests while projecting its own influence within a multipolar theatre.
Competition from other alliances
With the Lowy institute projecting an upward trajectory on military expenditure around the world, as the US intends to spend nearly US$1 trillion (RM4.7 trillion); Australia, US$45 billion; India, US$183 billion; and China, US$531 billion per year by 2030, the lack of a cohesive framework for bilateral military channels between China and the US tilts the balance away from deterrence and increases the risk of conflict as the arms race intensifies.
It is against this backdrop that the emergence of the QUAD security dialogue among Australia, India, Japan and the US and Aukus, the trilateral security pact among Australia, the UK and the US, has been met with great alarm and disquiet in Asean, seen as disrupting the regional status quo, inviting unnecessary confrontation and overreaction from both sides.
Moreover, the unspoken fear is that the increasing importance of such partnerships could displace Asean’s role as the key regional mediator, with external powers negating the importance of neutrality, further undermining its centrality.
If this materialises, the question of whether these alliances will constitute the death knell for one of Asean’s foundational roles arises. What realistic position will Asean play in the face of external power alliances undermining its existence?
One view suggests that this apparatus needs to engage actively with external partners to develop its overarching security architecture. Whereas another view calls for a total reset of Asean members to break away from all foreign influence and barring foreigners from imposing their vested interests onto the bloc.
This is predicated on the need for Asean willpower to enhance its collective military spending, which, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), accounted for only 2% of global defence expenditure in 2021.
Either way, Asean must beef up its mediating role and be prepared to project its own influence in Asia-Pacific. It is imperative that Asean strengthens its security architecture to thwart the imminent collapse of its edifice of stability and prevent the re-emergence of multidimensional great game geopolitics.
At present, while the make-up of the ARF, EAS and ADMM provides a veneer of pan-Asean cooperation through grandiose statement-making, it has failed to concretise the participants’ military commitments in the region.
Even if the prospects of stabilisation are achievable, Asean is acutely aware of the risks associated with this rivalry escalating into a new-age Cold War.
New approach
Therefore, Asean must strongly advocate for a rules-based order adhered to by all sides, peaceful resolution of disputes and open dialogue to serve as the key approach in preventing Asia-Pacific from becoming another flashpoint in the broader geopolitical tapestry.
Such is the only avenue to avoid being drawn into zero-sum competitions, recognising the importance of maintaining strong economic ties with all powers.
In a similar vein, the recent India-Asean cooperation on economic, cultural and maritime cooperation in the Indo-Pacific may augur well for regional stability and maritime security. India’s recent engagement with Asean could divest its reliance from QUAD to satisfy its own security needs, while affording greater weightage to Asean existing as a strategic counterbalance in the region and preventing the dominance of any single entity over another.
As a cornerstone geopolitical entity, Asean faces a unique and complex challenge balancing the interests of a multipolar world amid the intensifying geopolitical rivalry, highlighting the quest for a more comprehensive regional security architecture among both its member states and partners.
While seeking to avoid entanglement in great power confrontations, Asean needs to bolster its determination for a more responsive framework while promoting the collective benefits of cooperation over confrontation.
This is where we should seek the intersections of economic engagement with defence diplomacy, going beyond conventional mechanisms exhibiting proactiveness to ensure regional stability while pursuing our national interests of economic progress in the spirit of shared regional prosperity and responsibility.
Prof Dr Mohd Faiz Abdullah is chairman of the Institute of Strategic and International Studies (ISIS) Malaysia
Source: The Edge Malaysia
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