FIREWORKS AT SHANGRI-LA

Ministers, diplomats, military officials, security experts, business delegates and members of the international media congregated in Singapore to attend the annual Shangri-La Dialogue.

What is Shangri-La Dialogue?

It is a track-one defense meeting, held since 2002, in Singapore’s Shangri-La Hotel, aimed at discussing and evaluating the political and security situations in the Asia Pacific region.

The 19th dialogue, held in May 2022, was organized by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), a London-based think-tank and attended by some 400 delegates.

Beside the host Singapore, the 2022 dialogue were attended by representatives of Australia, Brunei, Cambodia, Canada, Chile, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Japan, Laos, Malaysia, Mongolia, Myanmar, New Zealand, Pakistan, the Philippines, Russia, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Sweden, Thailand, Timor Leste, Ukraine, UK, USA and Vietnam.

What were the highlights of the 2022 Shangri-La Dialogue?

China-US tensions. The conference witnessed the verbal clash between Beijing and Washington over a wide range of regional issues which many delegates believed that the security relations between China and the US were big and complex.

Security of choke points. The conference reiterated the importance of keeping the choke points: the Malacca Straits, the Singapore Straits and the South China Sea safe – a waterway which carries billions of dollars of trade and oil for the region.

South China Sea. Many speakers at the conference traded rhetorical fire over territorial disputes in the South China Sea with the big power rivals, China and the U.S. seeking support for their strategic positions.

Competing Pacific visions. The Shangri-La conference further displayed the big powers’ competing visions in the Pacific area that had transformed and underwent many strategic changes lately.

War in Ukraine. While the dialogue in Singapore was usually focused on Asia, the war in Ukraine was also raised in particular on its effects on international peace, on supply chains and on global food supply.

Impacts of sanctions. There were two sides of views at Shangri-La that sanctions worked in putting political pressures while the other groups considered sanctions had affected the whole international community.

Security alarms in the Pacific. Australia and New Zealand had raised their concerns in the security conference about the latest security developments or arrangements in the South Pacific region.

Military build-up. Concerns were also raised in the conference on the military build up in the Far East region especially on the importance of transparency in weapons procurements and developments.

Rise in global nuclear warheads. According to Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), the nuclear warhead stockpiles are expected to grow over the coming decade even though Russian and the US total warhead inventories continued to decline.

Huge naval exercises. It was reported in the Shangri-La conference that the world’s largest naval war games involving Australia, India, Japan and US and 5 South East Asian nations are to be held in the Pacific as a naval showpiece.

Arms race in the making. Weapons development dominated the discussion in the Shangri-La conference with countries like Japan and South Korea to re-look beyond their defense postures in view of the defense development in the region.

Bilateral defense agreements. The Shangri-La conference also enhanced the bilateral defense cooperation between Japan and Singapore, Australia and Singapore, Singapore and China; and Malaysia and Singapore in facing regional security challenges.

No force required. During the conference, it was also observed that no force was required either by China or the US for the nations in the region to take sides as reiterated by Singapore’s delegation.

Neglect in the South Pacific. Media observers in the Shangri-La conference opined that there was a sheer neglect by the neighboring rich countries on the socio-economic development of the island states of the South Pacific.

Revitalize FPDA. Members of the Five Power Defense Arrangements (FPDA), formed in 1971, comprising Australia, Britain, Malaysia, New Zealand and Singapore said they are committed to enhance the security arrangement to face the regional security situation.

Rise of sea levels. The Pacific islands of Fiji, Solomon Islands, Tonga and Samoa were deeply concerned in the Shangri-La conference on the rising ocean level and climate change rather than on geopolitical developments in the region.

Nuclearisation of the Far East. Delegates are also concerned in the conference over the nuclear weapons and missile developments especially in the North East Asian region which is one of the world’s nuclear hotspots.

Where is the Asia Pacific region heading?

Freedom of navigation. ASEAN nations must ensure that their waterways are safe, useful and free from disturbances as they are the main lifeline to trade and transportation for over 650 million people of ASEAN.

Neutrality and ASEAN. It is important that ASEAN should stay neutral in world affairs, in particular in the bilateral disputes between the big powers, and it is important to note that neutrality is the cornerstone of most ASEAN countries’ foreign policy.

ASEAN and rice security. ASEAN should take care of its rice security and the organization also should assist its rice producers: Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam as they are the largest exporters of rice to ASEAN member countries.

More face-to-face diplomacy. Many delegates including the media fraternity believed that more face-to-face diplomacy and dialogue sessions be organized as they were instrumental in cooling off high security tensions among the main powers in the region.

Enhance SEANWFZ. The Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapon Free Zone (SEANWFZ) signed in Bangkok in 1995, that commits ASEAN nations not to conduct or receive any nuclear devices by any means should be revitalized.

Enlarge ADMM-plus. It is good to note that France and Canada had shown their desire to join the 18-member ASEAN Defense Ministers Meeting (ADMM-plus) that now consists of ASEAN, Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea, Russia and the US.

War on pandemics. There is an unprecedented surge of pandemics and the world must be proactive in dealing with the problems, similarly, medical assistance or vaccine distributions must be transparent and fair especially to poor nations.

Cultivating young leaders. According to IISS, the annual conference also aims at creating a new generation of young political and economic leaders as well as strategists from South East Asia to address the security and economic challenges affecting their region and the world.

A China-US Summit? A summit meeting between the leaders of China and the US may be a good idea in times of global recession and to address both nation’s bilateral trade and security situations which are becoming more and more complex.

Kudos to Singapore and the IISS.

“Clearly it’s not all that pacific on the Pacific Ocean.”- Ilya Ilf (1897-1937), writer, journalist.

Abdul Halim Saad is head of Asia Pacific Risk Consultancy, studied politics at LSE and Bradford and taught international politics at Sultan Idris Education University, Proton City, Malaysia. (Article No 125).+++

Photo credit: Foreign Brief