GREAT HOPE FOR LEBANON

By Abdul Halim Saad, BA Malaya, Dip Politics LSE, MA Peace Studies Bradford.

Lebanon is facing a serious political crisis as it has no elected government for more than three years since its last general election in 2018.

In July 2021, Lebanese President Michel Aoun appointed Najib Mikati, 65, as the 3rd prime minister-designate with the job of preparing a government for Lebanon.

This is the third interim government after the 2018 election, the first was under expatriate Hassan Diab and the second was under politician Saad Hariri but both failed to bring political stability in Lebanon.

On September 10 2021, Najib Mikati formed a unity government of 24 ministers that included all religious groups, political parties and two independents after a series of negotiations with the president and the political parties.

The Lebanese interim government was established generally based on the concept of confessionalism politics.

What is the politics of confessionalism?

Confessionalism politics is a system of government with a mix of religion and politics whereby the political and institutional power are divided proportionally among the various religions in the country.

With 6 million mainly Arab people, Lebanon is divided into religious blocs, comprising 30% Sunni Muslims, 30% Shia Muslims, 34% Christian, 5% Druze and others.

The system is practiced in Lebanon whereby Maronite Christian must be President, a Sunni Muslim as Prime Minister, a Shia Muslim as Speaker of Parliament, an Orthodox Christian as Deputy Prime Minister and Deputy Speaker of Parliament.

Confessionalism politics is similarly practised in another Arab country, Iraq, whereby the President is to be a Kurd, the Speaker of Parliament is a Sunni Muslim Arab and the Prime Minister is a Shia Muslim Arab.

What is the composition of Najib Mikati’s unity cabinet?

Najib Mikati’s cabinet ministers is derived from 10 political parties, 2 independents and from 9 main religions in Lebanon.

The political parties and the religions as well as the number of ministers in the cabinet are: Azm Movement (Sunni) (4) ministers, Syrian Social Nationalist Party (Greek Orthodox) (1), Free Patriotic Movement (Greek Orthodox) (5), Progressive Nationalist Party (Druze) (1), Marada Movement (Maronite) (2), Future Movement (Sunni) (1), Lebanese Democratic (Druze) (1), Hezbollah (Shia) (1), Amal Movement (Shia) (2), Tashnat (Armenian Orthodox) (1) and the Independents (Latin Catholic and Latin Catholic) (2) ministers.

Najib Mikati is from the Azm Movement Party and is a Sunni Muslim, the Deputy Prime Minister Saadah Al Shami is from the Syrian Social Nationalist Party and a Greek Orthodox by religion while President Michel Aoun is a Maronite Christian.

Who is Najib Mikati?

Najib Mikati, 66, is a politician and a telcommunications billionaire who had been Lebanon’s prime minister three times.

He has MBA from the American University of Beirut, a Harvard educated and Forbes magazine in 2015 considered Najib Mikati as the richest man in Lebanon.

How serious are Lebanon’s problems?

No elected government. Lebanon has had no elected government since the 2018 election and the political impasse has created economic problems for the country.

Debt default. Lebanon defaulted on its debt, sending its currency crashing, nosediving 90% to the US dollar and its economy has shrunk by 25% in 2020.

Lack of public service. Lebanon is facing scarcity in fuel, medicine and electricity with massive impacts on urban management, health, transport, state’s security and education.

Poverty. In 2020, according to the World Bank, 55 percent of Lebanon’s population had plunged into poverty with 23 percent of whom were in extreme poverty.

Pandemic problems. Lebanon, like other nations, is also facing the coronavirus pandemic that has already caused thousands of deaths and that has impacted its social economic lives.

Recession. Lebanon is facing an acute recession and financial instability and if financial aid is not forthcoming it may move towards a “major catastrophe” at all levels of society, in the words of former premier Hassan Diab.

Managing refugees. Lebanon is managing over 1.6 million refugees mainly from Palestine and Syria that cost USD$4.5 billion every year, according to the Central Bank of Lebanon.

Why is it so difficult to fix Lebanon’s problems?

Absence of a strong government. Western powers are not willing to help Lebanon financially or economically in the absence of a democratically appointed government.

No help from Arab friends, donors. Lebanon’s Arab brothers are not helping and the donor countries are not willing or reluctant to help.

Sectarian politics. The power-sharing governing formula is to enable its many religious communities to be represented in the government but it also encourages in-group politics.

Fractured political elites. The EU, in fact, blamed Lebanon’s political elites for the problem and is pushing for sanctions on the country’s political leaders.

Lack of reforms. Donor countries want Lebanon to transform its financial and banking system, debt structure, reduce corruption and improve its administrative system before aid.

Trouble with the GCC. Lebanon’s diplomatic disputes with the Gulf Cooperation Council member countries developed since 2019 is far from over and is very damaging.

Stalled IMF talks. Negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) stalled and remains elusive while any help from OIC or Arab brothers is not promising either.

End foreign interferences. Due to its strategic location in the Middle East and the Mediterranean, Lebanon is not alien to the interferences of outside powers in its affairs.

Lebanon was the Switzerland of the Middle East, Why?

Beautiful landscape. Due to its beautiful snow-capped mountains, picturesque landscapes and panoramic sunsets, Lebanon was nicknamed the Switzerland of the Middle East.

Civil war. After gaining independence from France in 1943 and after the bloody and destructive civil war from 1975 to 1990, Lebanon managed to transform itself.

Financial center. Lebanon had become a strong and bustling financial and banking and was at one time called the financial centre of the Middle East.

Famous in tourism. In 2009 the tourism industry accounted for 10% of its GDP receiving 2 million tourists mostly from Europe, Japan, Latin America, Australia and USA.

Diversified economy and political stability, With a diversified economy in manufacturing, commerce, tourism and banking, Lebanon enjoyed political and economic stability and was considered a bustling Mediterranean country.

Another Paris. Beirut was known as the Paris of the East and in 2008, The New York Times ranked Beirut No.1 travel destination worldwide due to its nightlife and hospitality.

Booming metropolis. Beirut was vibrant and its urban population was noted for good commercial enterprises and business networks in the Middle East, the US and Europe.

Melting pot of Arab culture. The Lebanese share common Arab culture while language, food, music, songs and festivities are linked to Arab and Mediterranean norms.

Famous in music and dances. The country is popular with Arab traditional musical styles with well known for singers like Fairuz, Wadih El Safi, Sabah, Julia Boutros or Najwa Karam.

Best in education. Lebanon was globally ranked the 4th best for math and science education, the 10th best in quality of education and 13th best in the management of schools.

What’s next for Lebanon?

High expectations. Lebanon is facing a dire economic crisis causing the political deadlock and expectations are high on Najib Mikati to steer the country towards development.

Big hope in 2022. Lebanon’s next general election is scheduled in 2022 and with an elected government, Lebanon could hop out of the current political and economic crisis.

Regain past glory. It is hoped that the EU, Arab countries, World Bank and the IMF will help this beautiful country to regain its former glory as the financial center of the Middle East.

Food aid from Turkey. A little but big help from Turkey which provided USD5 million to rebuild the Beirut devastated port and had sent 320 tons of food to help Lebanon.

End diplomatic row. Turkey also promised to mediate the diplomatic row that developed between Lebanon and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members in August 2021.

Help from France. In August 2021, in a donor conference held in France, French President Emmanuel Macron promised to raise USD$370 million in emergency aid to Lebanon.

Urgent reforms. France, Lebanese ex-colonial power, has consistently urged Lebanon to conduct bureaucratic reforms and to address its acute political and economic problems.

Great expectations from the diasporas. Lebanon has 4.5 million diaspora overseas who are considered “rich, educated and influential” and yielded global “commercial networks” for Lebanon. In 2014, the diaspora mainly in the US, Canada, Brazil, Argentina, France, Saudi Arabia and Australia sent home US$8.9 billion or 18% of Lebanon’s economy.

Notable Lebanese diasporas are: actress Salma Hayek, Jenna Dewan Terence Malick:, Tony Shoulb superstar singer Shakira: human rights lawyer Amal Clooney: beauty queen Rima Fakih: beauty models Yamila Diaz-Raht, Daniella Sarahyba: musicians Jack Barakat, Bazzi, Petrick Gemayelt Oscar-winning composer Gabriel Yared: olympic medalists Florencia Habif, Mat Abood, Thaiser Daher: businessmen Charles Ghosn, Charlos Sim, Nassim Thalib, Lucile Salhany: Harvard professor Elias Coure: film producers Nassim Thaleb, Marrio Kassar, Daniel Kassar, Michael Tadross: scientists and medical innovators Michael Atiyah, Joanna Choty, Huda Zoghbi, Mona Nemer, Anthony Atala: olympic medalists Florencia Habif, Thaisa Daher: Indy 500 winner Bobby Rahal: FIFA World Cup record holder Mario Zagallo: US army generals John Abizaid, Michael Mansoor: US astronauts Christa McAuliffe: computer scientists Richard Rashid, Jerrier Haddad: US 2008 presidential candidate Ralph Nader: US cabinet secretaries Spencer Abraham (Health) Mark Aspen (Energy) John Senunu (Defense): heads of state, prime minister, governor Prime Minister Edward Siaga of Jamaica. President Michel Temer of Brazil, President Louis Abenader of Dominican Republic, President Jamil Mahuad of Ecuador, President Mario Abdo Benitez of Paraguay and Governor of Florida Philip Habib.

Adopt Look East Policy. Political analysts suggest that Lebanon to ‘Look East’ at the rich nations of Australia, China, Japan and South Korea for financial assistance and collaborations.

We wish the people of Lebanon all the best.

“Lebanon is more than a country; it is a message of freedom.” – Pope John Paul II.

The writer is head of Asia Pacific Risk Consultancy and a former lecturer in international politics at Sultan Idris Education University, Proton City, Malaysia. (Article No: 118).++