US 2020 ELECTION: A SIMPLE ANALYSIS

by Abdul Halim Saad, Dip Politics LSE, MA Peace Studies Bradford

The US election is a complex exercise and a simple analysis is needed to understand the workings of the world’s oldest and biggest democracy.

The election to elect the president is held simultaneously with the elections for the house of representatives, senate, state governors and mayors in 100 US major cities.

To elect the president, the US is divided into 538 divisions called ‘electoral colleges’ and whoever wins more than 270 electoral colleges wins the presidential election.

In the 2020 election, Joe Biden won the presidential election by winning 306 electoral colleges compared to Donald Trump who won 232 electoral colleges.

The latest election results are as follows:

No	Types of Election	Democrat	Republican	Winner
1	Presidential	Joe Biden (306)	Donald Trump (232)	Joe Biden
2	Popular Votes	51.40% (81.283.485)	46.90% (74,223.744)	Joe Biden
3	Senate	48 seats	50 seats	Republican
4	Hse of Representatives	222 seats	210 seats	Democrat
5	State Governors	26 states + DC	24 states	Democrat
6	City Mayor of 100 cities	72 cities	28 cities	Democrat

There are some interesting things about the US election that we need to know.

1 The US has only 2 main political parties participating in the election i.e. the Democratic and Republican Parties.

2 There are 240 million registered voters with some 30% non-white voters and voting age is 18 years old but in Maryland state, the voting age is 16 but only for local councils.

3 More than 160 million voted in the 2020 election and the voter turnout was 67% which is considered the highest in US election history.

4 The US election costs a staggering amount of $7 billion and the figure exclude moneys spent by the political parties in the political campaigns.

5 There is a high number of postal voters or about 80 million or 35% of registered voters which is among the highest anywhere in the world.

6 The US has no political campaign time limit except in the polling station on the voting day as any limitations are considered unconstitutional and against free speech.

7 Even with a complex election, forecasting for result is easy as predictions are to be made only in ‘swing states’ such as Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia and Florida

8 For analytical purposes, the American states are mapped into ‘sure win states, namely blue for Democrat, red for Republican while yellow is for ‘swing states’,

9 In the US, political donations are allowed, registered and transparent but foreign donations are strictly prohibited and unlawful.

10 The 2020 election issues are mainly the Covid19 pandemic, economy, health care, climatic issues and race relations while foreign affairs take a backstage.

11 It is alleged that foreign nations do interfere in US elections through internet manipulations but yet to be proven technically and by the legal courts.

12 The 2020 election was reported fair by OSCE international observers but President Donald Trump accused the existence of voter fraud and statistical manipulations.

13 The American media, opinion polls and the influential lobby groups always play in determining the process and outcome of the elections.

14 The US presidency has a two 4-year term maximum. (Note: some republics in the world has one term 6-year or two 5-year terms maximum).

15 All American presidents are Christian of the Protestant faith with the exception of President John F Kennedy who was a Catholic.

16 More than half of US 46 presidents or 25 are lawyers mainly from the Ivy League law schools including 8 with Harvard / Yale law degrees.

17 Majority of US presidents or 36 or 80% have served in the military, 11 with the ranks of general and 15 presidents were war-veterans.

18* Failure to capture the Senate would hamper Joe Biden’s attempts to pass major legislations, as Donald Trump found during his time in the White House.

19 The new president will appoint an all-new cabinet members to run the White House and most appointees are bureaucrats, academics and non-politicians.

20 It is generally believed that politics in Washington are always influenced by three components: the White House, Congress and the financially powerful Wall Street.

21 The US president is the head of state, head of government who directs the executive branch of the federal government and the commander-in-chief of the US Armed Forces.

22 The power of the presidency has grown substantially since the early 20th century and is look upon as the most powerful political leader of the remaining superpower.

Joe Biden, 77, will enter the White House on January 20, 2021 as the 46th president of the US and Kamala Harris, 56, will be the vice president and also first woman vice president in US 245-year history

‘”Misused statistics can harm democracy.”- Raphael Ntentas / Nikolaos Tsilingiris: LSE research students.

The writer is head of Asia Pacific Risk Consultancy, a risk management study group and a former lecturer at Sultan Idris Education University, Proton City, Malaysia. (Art no 109).